News & Reports News Year 2011 October , 2011 GDP figures show China double dip 'unlikely

GDP figures show China double dip 'unlikely


CHINA'S economy was unlikely to experience a double-dip growth pattern as third-quarter growth remained stable and macroeconomic policies proved effective, said Sheng Laiyun, a spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics.

Gross domestic Product in China managed to expand 9.1 percent from a year earlier between July and September, extending a relatively stable momentum from 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first three months.

Economic output in the first three quarters rose to 32 trillion yuan (US$5 trillion), up 9.4 percent year-on-year, according to data released by the bureau this morning.
"It's no easy job to achieve such a growth rate under complicated global economic situations and new circumstances in the domestic market," Sheng said. "With stable investment and robust consumption, China's growth is not going to have a second dip as some analysts predicted."
Fixed-asset investment in the first nine months jumped 24.9 percent annually to 21.2 trillion yuan, changing little from 25 percent in the months to August. Investment was upheld by various new projects kicked off in the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) period.
Meanwhile, retail sales in September gained 17.7 percent from a year earlier to 1.58 trillion yuan, up from 17 percent a month earlier. Industrial production also quickened 0.3 percent from August to grow 13.8 percent last month.

"China's economy performed slightly better than expected in the third quarter, mainly thanks to solid domestic demand," said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura. "With a global economic downturn still in sight, China needs to keep its policies consistent while flexible."
The reduction of inflationary pressure has made it possible for China to adjust its prudent monetary policies to support growth.
The Consumer Price Index, a main gauge of inflation, increased 6.1 percent year-on-year last month, moderating for a second month from August's 6.2 percent and July's 6.5 percent.
Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC, estimated the central bank might allow more liquidity on the market to rescue cash-strapped small firms after decreasing inflationary pressures were detected.
"But it does not mean a complete reverse of the current policy stance, especially for the real estate market," Qu said in an earlier interview.
Some other economists said China would not shift its anti-inflation bias before a clear downward trend in inflation was seen as powerhouse countries, like the United States, still held onto rather loose monetary policies that may further fan global inflation.

Last Updated (Wednesday, 19 October 2011 09:28)