News & Reports News Year 2011 september,2011 Moderate growth in industrial output

Moderate growth in industrial output

GROWTH of China's industrial output and fixed-asset investment continued to moderate in August as tightening measures started to take effect. However, analysts dispelled fears of a hard-landing for the economy.

Industrial output gained 13.5 percent in August from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday, slower than the 14 percent increase in July and a consensus of 13.7 percent according to a Reuters poll.

Urban fixed-asset investment in the first eight months of this year rose 25 percent from last year, 0.4 percentage point slower than the growth in the first seven months, the bureau said.

"The trend of industrial output and investment is following the direction of macro policies, and demands in general continued to decrease," said Zhang Lei, a macro-economic analyst at Minsheng Securities. "But performance differed in different sectors."

He said investment dropped significantly in railways and central government-run projects, but manufacturing continued to boom. Investment in the property sector remained relatively quick despite government measures to control home-buying speculation.

Data showed that property investment jumped 33.2 percent year on year to 3.78 trillion yuan (US$592 billion) in the first eight months, slightly slower than the 33.6 percent hike in the first seven months.

Analysts said China's gross domestic product may still rise 9 percent in the fourth quarter and there is no need to loosen domestic monetary stance to stimulate the economy.

"China's GDP growth is likely to hit 9.3 percent in the third quarter and may slow down to 9 percent in the fourth," said Lu Ting, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Merrill Lynch.

Lu said China's economy will experience a soft landing and the economy's elasticity will lift market confidence.

"That should dampen expectations for China to loosen its monetary policy in the short term," he added.

His comments defy several downgrades for China's economic growth forecast in the past two weeks amid worsening outlook for the global economy. Various institutions, including UBS AG and Deutsche Bank, said China's economic growth this year may fall below 9 percent.

The country's GDP growth in the first half of this year rose 9.6 percent from a year earlier.