News & Reports News Year 2011 July , 2011 Inflation has likely peaked, official says

Inflation has likely peaked, official says

CHINA'S inflation has most likely peaked and consumer price increases will not be as high in the second half of this year, said Zhou Wangjun, a vice director in the pricing department of the National Development and Reform Commission.
"Consumer prices remained high in the first half, with increases ranging from 4.9 to 6.4 percent, but we are cautiously optimistic about the second half because of waning imported inflationary pressure as global commodity prices drop," Zhou said yesterday in an online interview on the central government's website.
The moderated growth of money supply in the past two months and a sufficient supply of major products such as food will also play a positive role in further stabilizing consumer prices, Zhou said.
"Three rounds of consumer price increases have occurred this century, with the first round lasting 27 months and the second round lasting 24 months. The current round has lasted 24 months, and the turning point should be approaching according to the price movement cycle," he said.
He added that inflation of 3-5 percent is reasonable if the economy is growing 10 percent annually.
China's Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, hit a three-year high of 6.4 percent last month, up 0.9 percentage point from May.
The CPI was driven by a 14.4 percent jump in food costs, especially pork, which surged 57.1 percent from a year earlier.
Zhou said the pork price increase was caused by a temporary supply shortage.
CHINA'S inflation has most likely peaked and consumer price increases will not be as high in the second half of this year, said Zhou Wangjun, a vice director in the pricing department of the National Development and Reform Commission.
"Consumer prices remained high in the first half, with increases ranging from 4.9 to 6.4 percent, but we are cautiously optimistic about the second half because of waning imported inflationary pressure as global commodity prices drop," Zhou said yesterday in an online interview on the central government's website. 
The moderated growth of money supply in the past two months and a sufficient supply of major products such as food will also play a positive role in further stabilizing consumer prices, Zhou said."Three rounds of consumer price increases have occurred this century, with the first round lasting 27 months and the second round lasting 24 months. The current round has lasted 24 months, and the turning point should be approaching according to the price movement cycle," he said.He added that inflation of 3-5 percent is reasonable if the economy is growing 10 percent annually.
China's Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, hit a three-year high of 6.4 percent last month, up 0.9 percentage point from May.The CPI was driven by a 14.4 percent jump in food costs, especially pork, which surged 57.1 percent from a year earlier.
Zhou said the pork price increase was caused by a temporary supply shortage.